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Writer's pictureCoauthor,Honggang&Air Lee

Pay attention to ordering: A view on migration of the Chinese Spring Festival

Updated: Aug 3, 2018


When customers come to us with consulting how to avoid the harsh moment during the year when you want something to be shipped but the situation is the factories are just out of labors and in short capacity for production. Hence our customers are running out of materials and cutting off their supply chain. Yes, when it's mentioned about the National Holiday( Oct 1st and 7 days onwards) or Chinese Spring Festival ( Chinese New Year, usually end Jan beginning of Feb followed by Lunar calendar) the smart thing is you make one note on your calendar 4 months earlier (oversea buyers) than the events' date. It's time to look at your safety stock because just after a couples of months the alarm will be ringing all the way through the materials, labors and capacities. Logistics services will also be unstable and limited for a period of time.


After Spring Festival- the largest population migration in the world is over, hundreds of millions of people are reluctant to leave their hometowns and return to big cities to continue with striving for their living. It’s shocked to see from the migration map of big data: Trajectory of countless shining stars disappeared and aggregated together.



Before the Spring Festival, the main move out of the city as migration of the national floating flow showed on the striking picture. People from the brightest point, flooded all over the country to return to their hometown for the Chinese New Year. We have selected the top 20 cities to relocate, and that is the 20 cities that carry more than 40% of the population migration.


Similarly, if you look at the net move out of the major cities, that’s to take a difference calculation on population between each city moved out and moved to, there are still similar findings.The following figure is the net emigration and net migration of the main city map, red means before the Spring Festival net move out of the city, Green said before the Spring Festival net moved to the city. The larger the circle, the greater the value. It can be clearly seen in the picture, the most absorbed population of the city is mainly concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and its surrounding economically developed cities. In addition, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Xi' An and other Midwest provinces and cities also showed the ability to absorb the population. Corresponding to the spring Festival before the population (green circle) most returned to Anhui, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Sichuan and other provinces.



The difference between cities by taking a view of the major cities to absorb the demographic characteristics, you will find some interesting points. We selected the first 10 move out cities, and made a simple analysis of their portrait of the population. First, from the breadth of the gathering population, the north of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Dongguan and other cities are more widely distributed, more diverse. Relatively speaking, Zhengzhou, Chengdu and other cities, although also attract a large number of foreign populations, but the radiation range is mainly contributed by the surrounding cities in the province. Zhengzhou, for example, attracts 84% of its foreign population from Henan province.Chengdu is similar, this number is 80%.

As for the four international metropolises, the choice of the immigrant population has obvious geographical preference and take the nearest principle.

Beijing attracts the population mainly from Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other provinces, in addition, Anhui, Liaoning and other populations are also more favored Beijing.



Shanghai attracts the population mainly from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces, followed by Henan and Jiangxi.



Guangzhou, Shenzhen attracted about 50% of the population from Guangdong province, followed by Hunan, Guangxi.



Reference : Baidu big data

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